When The Data Doesn't Match The Hype

Here is a graph for the UK that tracks new cases, new hospital admissions, Covid occupied beds, and Covid deaths.

Note that Nov. last year, when zero of the population was vaccinated, and Nov of this year, when something north of 80% of 12 and older have had two jabs and 90% of the population has antibodies, new cases were actually lower last year, new hospitalizations and Covid occupied beds were only a hair higher, and deaths were also only a hair higher.

Now, there are several possible conclusions one could draw. First is that the Delta variant currently in circulation is far more contagious (accounting for more new cases) but less deadly than the original (accounting for fewer deaths and about the same levels of hospitalizations). Another is that early symptom treatment has improved, and sticking the sick on ventilators once hospitalized is eschewed in favor of more effective hospital care. Yet another is that the way Covid deaths are being logged has changed (don't know, but anything's possible) so it appears fewer Covid deaths, but still more all cause mortalities (which is the case) than last year. Still another is that the more vulnerable already died last year, so there are fewer at death's door this year. Still another is that the weather has been warmer this year, so the numbers are basically off last year's by a week or two (which seems a reasonable inference based on a difference that may well be a simple 14 day timing disparity).

One thing that jumps out at me is that mass vaccination has had zero effect on contagion (with it worse this year) and on hospitalizations (too close to declare anything statistically relevant), and if any on fatalities, an extremely minor amount given deaths are uncomfortably near where they were last year (and assuming that some who are dying of the vaxx from clots and cardiac issues aren't labeled Covid, we could conclude it's had no effect, but that is speculative, as is all the rest of this).

Of course the official spin is that "maybe we've reached herd immunity!" Which simply ignores the numbers, as a glance at new cases and hospitalizations would tell you. Then again, since at no point has the UK's Covid response seemed remotely interested in the actual data or anything other than pushing the jab on everyone, I wouldn't expect much else than an attempt to declare victory when the data is...less than epic, to put it mildly.

This is why you can't draw your conclusions from the declarations of the MSM or public health figures. Their words in no way match this graph. And yet if you didn't have acccess to the graph, you might be inclined to believe them. I'm not. If I had to guess, I would expect the chart to start climbing again as soon as the weather gets ugly, at which point I would also expect all the usual MSM and public health/government figures to claim the rise is mysterious and nobody understands it, just as they are currently claiming that the higher all cause mortality this year is mysterious and nobody understand why it is - because of course it couldn't be the jab they've foisted off on everyone! If that sounds like circular logic, BTW, it is. "It can't be the shot because the shot is safe! Which is why it's mystifying!" And so on.